We were pleased to partner with UBS Wealth Management to present a Global Economic Update. We were joined by guest speaker, Paul Donovan, Global Wealth Management Chief Economist for UBS.
One of the first challenges in trying to understand the economy today is that the quality of economic data is not what it was. Most economic data was designed in the 1930s. The way economic data views the world is not well suited to the changes that are happening today. Patterns of employment are changing. The rise of self-employment, home working, and having multiple jobs confuses data. The difference between investment spending and consumer spending has become blurred. GDP measured a manufacturing based economy very well (it was, after all, designed to help maximise wartime production). It is becoming less and less useful, however, in a more service sector based economy.
The result is that we have to be careful in being too precise about economies. The broad trends are probably correct, but the details are almost certainly wrong. There are, nonetheless, some things that we can see emerging in the world today. The trend of ever more trade taxes from the United States has upset the global trade system. Trade taxes hurt listed companies more than they hurt the wider economy, because the overwhelming majority of global trade is conducted inside companies (moving goods from subsidiary to subsidiary). Large multinational companies tend to be listed companies.
Trade taxes are also more damaging to investment than to the consumer. This is because investment goods are a disproportionately large part of global trade. Trade taxes are thus a disproportionate tax on investment. It is also because the uncertainty around global supply chains seems to be causing companies to rethink their investment plans. So far, this has not really been noticed by the consumer. The investment slowdown is causing a global economic slowdown. Only if this spills over into labour markets and the consumer would a recession be threatened.
More on these and other topics can be found at ubs.com/pauldonovan – where you can also sign up for the daily podcast covering the key economic issues.
This event was hosted by Bailey Fisher in partnership with UBS Wealth Management and was attended by CFOs of UK growth technology businesses.
Attendance at Bailey Fisher’s Leadership Series events is by invitation. If you are interested in finding out more about future events, please contact Kerry Linsey at Bailey Fisher.
Andrew Moore was pleased to host dinner and discussion for Chair/NEDs on ‘Seed, Series A & Beyond’ in partnership with Silicon Valley Bank and Taylor Vinters.
It was clear from the evening’s discussion that there are concerns surrounding the availability of liquidity. Certainly, the opportunity to use AIM no longer seems to be a viable alternative for the UK’s early stage tech sector. Perhaps the sweet spot for entry has changed to reflect a slightly more mature business type.
Private Equity continues to provide an alternative route for those with profitable growth, but it is the Series A to C companies that see the greatest challenge in securing funding to accelerate. There is a lot of money available but not from the traditional sources. You need to look far and wide and at what price?
It was interesting to note that views as to the role of a Founder / CEO post-investment appear to differ widely. For the majority, the strength of the team continues to be one of the key factors in deciding on investment. For others, however, there seemed to be little patience for those who fail to meet the demands of new investors and are unable to drive growth as quickly as expected.
Bailey Fisher Executive Search is pleased to have worked with TAB on the search for a Sales Director, resulting in the appointment of Craig Rowland.
TAB (previously Crowdsurfer) is the world’s most sophisticated marketplace finance intelligence. TAB interprets billions of financial data points from thousands of crowdfunding and P2P platforms globally, allowing clients to identify fresh opportunities and make better decisions.
Bailey Fisher was engaged by the board to manage the search for a first sales lead for the business, with familiarity in an entrepreneurial, high-growth environment and experience selling to the aligned and complementary customer base.
Steve has 30 years’ experience in marketing for brand and business growth and has developed marketing programmes for the likes of Nestle UK, Adnams plc and Kettle Chips. Steve led discussion around ‘The impact of brand identity within family firms’.